Good morning and welcome to FirstFT. In today’s newsletter:
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US stocks finish quarter with biggest gains for 6 years
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Democratic Socialist wins Colorado primary
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Trump made more than $1bn from crypto sales last year
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Can Uniqlo take on H&M and Inditex?
A quick question for FirstFT readers: what do you want to know more about? We’re considering which subjects and global regions deserve more attention and would highly value your input.
US stocks are expected to make a cautious start today after closing out their strongest quarter in six years.
Wall Street’s S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 14.9 per cent and 21.4 per cent respectively in the three months ended June 30. That marked their best runs since the same period in 2020 when markets snapped back from heavy losses in the months after the outbreak of Covid-19.
A slide in oil prices, red-hot performances by semiconductor stocks and signs of resilience across the US economy fuelled a rally for the S&P 500 since the end of March that peaked on June 2.
However, the S&P 500 slipped 1.1 per cent in June as investors rotated out of the Magnificent Seven megacap tech stocks and into industrials and defensive sectors including healthcare. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8 per cent.
In contrast, the Russell 2000 small-cap index this week powered to a record high, reflecting a vote of confidence by investors in the health of the world’s largest economy.
Gold, on the other hand, wrapped up its worst quarterly performance in more than a decade after closing below $4,000 a troy ounce yesterday, amid expectations of higher interest rates in the US and dwindling enthusiasm among retail investors. Those predictions of higher US interest rates helped the dollar post gains last quarter against a basket of currencies, hitting the yen particularly hard.
Investors will get fresh insight into the health of the US economy tomorrow when the government releases June employment data. A FactSet survey of economists shows they believe the economy added 100,000 new jobs last month, down from 172,000 in May. The figures are being released a day early because of a public holiday in the US on Friday.
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh is due to make his first public appearance abroad as head of the US central bank later today and may comment on the US economy. He will appear on a panel alongside Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England head Andrew Bailey at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:
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Doha talks: US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, are expected to meet Qatari officials after arriving in Doha yesterday. The talks are part of an effort to shore up a fragile ceasefire with Iran but no direct talks are expected between US and Iranian officials.
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Economic data: The US Institute for Supply Management is set to publish its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for June. Separately, the S&P Global final manufacturing PMI for June is also due.
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US 250th Independence Day celebrations: Trump is expected to attend the dedication of the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora, North Dakota. An event that was meant to celebrate an exceptional nation has been cornered by one man, writes Edward Luce.
Five more top stories
1. Billionaire Michael Platt’s BlueCrest Capital has lost a £200mn legal battle with the UK tax authorities over how its traders should be taxed. The UK Supreme Court dismissed an appeal by the investment firm. “The UK is no longer a serious contender as a jurisdiction in which to do business,” BlueCrest, once one of the world’s largest hedge funds, said following the decision.
2. Democratic socialist Melat Kiros won a party primary in Colorado, defeating longstanding incumbent Diana DeGette. The result marks another victory for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party a week after three congressional candidates backed by New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani swept their Democratic primaries.
3. The US government has lifted its export controls on Anthropic’s leading models, ending a weeks-long impasse between the $1tn AI company and the Trump administration. The decision allows the AI group to re-release its latest model, Fable 5, to the general public.
4. Trump earned more than $1.16bn in crypto sales and memecoin royalties last year upon returning to the US presidency. The annual disclosure, required by law, will raise new questions about conflicts of interest in his administration. Here are five things we learnt from the release.
5. Europe’s rearmament drive is sustaining 195,000 US defence jobs through $300bn in arms orders, Nato’s top official told the FT. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte hailed a rush of European defence spending on US arms, both to overhaul their long-neglected militaries and support Ukraine. Read the full interview.
You can listen to today’s top news stories in the FT News Briefing podcast.
US Supreme Court checks presidential power
A series of decisions from America’s top court in its whirlwind final week has delivered its own verdict: this is Chief Justice John Roberts’ court, not Donald Trump’s.
In rulings on birthright citizenship and Trump’s power to fire a Federal Reserve governor, the US Supreme Court delivered gut punches to the president’s second-term agenda. Earlier this year, justices ruled that Trump had also acted illegally in using emergency power to impose tariffs.
At a time when Trump’s image hangs from the US justice department, helmed by his one-time personal lawyer, and as Congress has repeatedly bowed to the second-term president’s will, the rulings serve notice that America’s system of checks and balances remains alive, writes Ella Lee in Washington.
We’re also reading . . .
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Global economy: Despite the pandemic, Trump’s tariffs and energy shocks from two wars, the world has remained resilient. Are we invulnerable or just plain lucky, asks Martin Wolf.
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The town Elon Musk built: A city is emerging out of Texas sand, home to SpaceX and the rocket company’s workers. Welcome to Starbase.
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Fashion: Uniqlo’s dream of conquering North America and Europe is coming true. Sales in both territories have more than tripled since 2021. Can it overtake H&M, Inditex and Shein?
Chart of the day
A record global average sea temperature in June had pushed the world into “uncharted territory”, scientists said in two new reports, as global warming and the El Niño cycle combine to increase the chances of more extreme weather ahead.
The daily sea surface temperature had surpassed the previous highs in the same month in 2023 and 2024, two European Earth observation agencies confirmed.
The new record came just weeks after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US said the naturally occurring El Niño weather phenomenon had developed, with waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator becoming significantly warmer.
Take a break from the news . . .
Do you have a favourite independent coffee shop? FT writers nominate their top picks for a caffeine hit — from Berlin to Buenos Aires.
