{"id":2866,"date":"2026-08-19T16:00:29","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T16:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/?p=2866"},"modified":"2026-08-19T16:00:29","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T16:00:29","slug":"more-on-the-next-super-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/?p=2866","title":{"rendered":"More on the Next \u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Yves here. It\u2019s hard to know what can be done to mitigate the personal effects of El Ni\u00f1o even if you are not on the tracks in front of this freight train, as farmers are. Many have pointed out that even though it will be strongest in late summer and fall, it will continue for another nine months to a year. The effects on planting and crop yields will thus persist through the 2027 spring and summer planting season. Tom Neuburger describes below that super El Ni\u00f1o have durable climate effects.<\/p>\n

By Tom Neuburger. Originally published at God\u2019s Spies<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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A line of severe storms rolls into Chicago\u2019s Austin neighborhood from the west along West Madison Street, Aug. 11, 2026 (ABC News<\/a>). Brian Cassella\/Chicago Tribune\/Tribune News Service via Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

This is a follow-up to our latest climate report (\u201cA Record El Ni\u00f1o Is Coming<\/a>\u201d). There we talked about this summer\u2019s unprecedented jump in sea surface temperature and noted the rising heat through much of the world.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not alone in alarm; a number of publications have noted how unusual the coming El Ni\u00f1o will be and what it might bring. For example:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Newsweek: El Ni\u00f1o Breaking 176-Year Record: The Impact on Florida, Texas, California<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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A potentially historic El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> is strengthening in the Pacific, raising the prospect of shifting weather patterns across parts of the U.S., including changes in rain, storm risk and tropical activity affecting Florida, Texas and California.<\/p>\n

Florida meteorologist Matt Devitt said in a Monday post on X<\/a> that forecasts suggest this El Ni\u00f1o could surpass anything seen since at least 1850, potentially setting a 176-year benchmark.<\/p>\n

While El Ni\u00f1o begins in the tropical Pacific, its effects can reshape weather patterns across the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The Devitt X post shows this:<\/p>\n

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How to read the chart:<\/em> The numbers down the middle show the strength of each El Ni\u00f1o measured by how much temperature increase it caused. The predicted +2.65\u00b0C (4.77\u00b0F)<\/strong> is a lot for a weather system to absorb. The 2015-2016 event is estimated to have caused up to $90 billion in global damage<\/a> directly, and the long-term effects of super El Ni\u00f1o disruptions<\/a> run into the trillions.<\/p>\n

In addition, the forecast above could be quite conservative. According to a similar article in Wired<\/a>, \u201cmedian temperatures for the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region [a defined region of the Pacific<\/a>] could reach 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal<\/strong>\u2014even after accounting for the effects of long-term global warming\u201d (emphasis mine).<\/p>\n

For a sense of what this looks like graphically, here\u2019s a chart from James Hansen<\/a>showing the current temperatures (in red) charted with some of the previous \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1os. (Note: Hansen uses a different measurable than the standard El Ni\u00f1o measurement \u2014 he uses the temperature of the upper 300 meters of the ocean instead of just surface temperature \u2014 so his numbers are slightly different.)<\/p>\n

If the worst predictions are right, the red line will break above the top of the graph.<\/p>\n

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Below is a chart from NOAA<\/a> that shows El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a temperature departures going back to 1950 (click to enlarge).<\/p>\n

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Gives a sense of the sweep of things, doesn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n

What to Expect<\/b><\/p>\n

As to what to expect this year and next:<\/p>\n