{"id":1844,"date":"2026-08-03T12:06:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T12:06:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/?p=1844"},"modified":"2026-08-03T12:06:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T12:06:43","slug":"iran-war-trump-keeps-up-threat-display-false-claims-of-negotiations-as-he-tacos-israel-still-pressing-for-escalation-as-us-withdrawals-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/?p=1844","title":{"rendered":"Iran War: Trump Keeps Up Threat Display, False Claims of Negotiations as He TACOs; Israel Still Pressing for Escalation as US Withdrawals Continue"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.16.52\u202fPM.png\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Iran War: Trump Keeps Up Threat Display, False Claims of Negotiations as He TACOs; Israel Still Pressing for Escalation as US Withdrawals Continue\" title=\"Iran War: Trump Keeps Up Threat Display, False Claims of Negotiations as He TACOs; Israel Still Pressing for Escalation as US Withdrawals Continue\" \/><\/div><p><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>[Today\u2019s  Iran war, as usual, fired a bit early. Please return at 7:30 AM EDT for a final version]<\/p>\n<p>As most of you know well, Trump again TACOed over the weekend, calling off a loudly-broadcast, supposedly monster attack on Iran at the very last minute, in yet another instance of Trump being influenced by the last person who spoke to him. Recall we and many others warned that Trump was likely to Do Something after meeting Netanyahu and being surrounded by hawks at Linsey Graham\u2019s funeral. After making yet another in a long series of threats of devastating Iran, Iran not only cleared its throat and reminded the US and Israel that petrostate energy infrastructure would be obliterated, but published a target list with notes for the Trump dummies as to why they mattered.<sup>1<\/sup> And to make sure this communication landed. Iranian Foreign Minister called key Gulf State leaders. As Axios first reported, MBS called Trump to get him to stand down. The Wall Street Journal later provided more detail, including that the UAE was still pumping for the strikes.  <\/p>\n<p>As of course, Trump is again remarkably fronting the bogus line that Iran is begging for a deal. Forgive me for placing so much emphasis on headlines, but they have strong influence on how readers process the rest of the article\u2026.charitably assuming any more is read:<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>There is no mention in the article that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-08-02\/trump-says-iran-talks-to-begin-monday-after-calling-off-strikes\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Iran has not agreed to talks<\/a>. You have to go to Aljazeera to have a clue:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-5.09.02\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"95\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-314331\"\/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/liveblog\/2026\/8\/3\/iran-war-live-trump-says-talks-set-to-begin-tehran-urges-us-to-honour-mou\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">And from its live feed<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>A recap of remarks by Iran FM spokesman Baghaei<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>There are currently no negotiations with the United States, and Iran is not planning to send or host delegations \u201cthese days\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>Negotiations are ongoing, and progress has been made with Oman to secure a temporary passage through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/li>\n<li>Reaching an agreement with Oman is not sufficient to reopen the strait; the situation will remain unchanged if US \u201caggression\u201d continues.<\/li>\n<li>China is concerned about \u201cthe escalation of conflict and insecurity in the region\u201d and is trying to prevent the situation from escalating.<\/li>\n<li>There is no new mediator in talks with the US, with Pakistan and Qatar carrying out the duty.<\/li>\n<li>The US-Israeli war on Iran is not just a war against one country; it is \u201ca war against the entire region\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>The situation in Yemen is not related to the war on Iran, and linking any issue to the war is \u201ca form of evasion of responsibility\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And from the Financial Times:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.06.41\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"85\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-314321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.06.41\u202fPM.png 1206w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.06.41\u202fPM-300x57.png 300w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.06.41\u202fPM-1024x195.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.06.41\u202fPM-768x146.png 768w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.06.41\u202fPM-624x119.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Note the subhead is a misrepresentation. Yes, Iran has said it is close to reaching an understanding with Oman about the <em><strong>future <\/strong><\/em>management of the Strait of Hormuz. But that no way, no how means the Strait of Hormuz will be \u201copen\u201d any time soon. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.presstv.co.uk\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">See the landing page at Press TV<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/00-pressTV-Aug-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"332\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-314322\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Note the headlines:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Iran-Oman shipping understanding no green light for Hormuz reopening: Baghaei<\/p>\n<p>Claims of Iran agreeing to reopen Hormuz Strait are false: Report<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>A high level view:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8220;I was gonna attack Iran and win again, but our allies said please Mr Trump, stop, it&#8217;s too much winning, we can&#8217;t take it anymore.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z7sK3Owvnl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/t.co\/Z7sK3Owvnl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MenchOsint\/status\/2084036708631240780?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Even the Wall Street Journal signals a smidge of skepticism in its lead story, including editorializing via an unflattering photo:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-6.12.46\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"564\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-314339\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-6.12.46\u202fPM.png 1126w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-6.12.46\u202fPM-300x282.png 300w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-6.12.46\u202fPM-1024x962.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-6.12.46\u202fPM-768x722.png 768w, https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-6.12.46\u202fPM-624x586.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/middle-east\/trump-pivots-back-to-diplomacy-as-iran-victory-eludes-him-a925ee98?mod=hp_lead_pos1\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">From the body<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>After days of threats to launch a new offensive against Iran, President Trump is once again trying to achieve through diplomacy what he has yet to accomplish through war. <\/p>\n<p>The question is whether Trump\u2019s Gulf partners can make enough headway in the days ahead to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, at least temporarily, and lay the groundwork for eventual nuclear talks\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>Still, if talks falter as they have in the past, Trump could once again fall into a familiar cycle of reviving his military threats shortly after he shelved them.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe is trying his hand now at a diplomatic solution to avoid military escalation. But there\u2019s no clear path, either diplomatically or militarily, to get Trump to a place where he can declare victory,\u201d said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University.  <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Policy Tensor on Twitter puts it more pointedly<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The extreme mendacity and total lack of credibility of the US Administration is self-defeating. It makes it dramatically harder to conduct either coercive diplomacy or find an off-ramp.<\/p>\n<p>Coercion is harder because Iran has learnt not to believe US threats. Finding an off-ramp is harder because Iran has learnt not to believe US promises.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>However, I do not agree that there is no military solution for Iran. It is pushing the US out of the region. The US is running out of munitions and cannot hope to restore stocks in any time frame that will change the direction of travel. And Iran can and will destroy the global economy if the US tries a big, savage attack. <\/p>\n<p>Regarding the Journal\u2019s newfound skepticism, perhaps word is getting out that Iran is not bothering to play nicely when Trump revives his tired peace talks gimmick. <a href=\"https:\/\/no1sdailydigest.substack.com\/p\/daily-digest-2026-08-03\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">From NO1\u2019s latest update<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Tankers still targeted in the \u201cdeal\u201d corridor<\/strong>. UKMTO\/Ambrey logged an explosion ~20nm NE of Khasab, Oman (MoloWarMonitor, ZH); the VELOS AMBER transited the US-backed corridor under heavy air escort but was fired on by at least one projectile (MenchOsint). Not the behaviour of a side \u201cbegging for a ceasefire.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Sadly, this \u201cdeal are on again\u201d barker talk is still effective enough to sway Mr. Market and preserve the Trump delusion that his is a Colossus, astride the world, driving all events.<\/p>\n<p>But to step back: Iran is implicitly operating on the old Teddy Roosevelt maxim, \u201cIf you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.\u201d But the energy\/critical commodities squeeze has not yet become acute enough to imperil Trump\u2019s manhood. Various Twitterati claim that Iran won\u2019t consider negotiations<sup>2<\/sup> until oil has reached $120 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p>Trump, as John Mearsheimer is flailing about, falling back on well-established reflexes that if he punches out aggressively in enough directions, he at least buys time time and eventually changes the dynamics in ways that help him. No such outcome is possible here. as we have repeatedly said, time is not on Trump\u2019s side:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bessent is smart enough to know that you can\u2019t kill oil prices unless you kill the backwardation in the curve. <\/p>\n<p>And you can\u2019t kill backwardation unless you have the barrels. <\/p>\n<p>The US can announce another unilateral SPR release and let\u2019s say that 70 million bbls is the minimum.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FnfUvVWl6P\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/FnfUvVWl6P<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 HFI Research (@HFI_Research) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HFI_Research\/status\/2084136913653653684?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The rest of the text of the tweet:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>That\u2019s another 200 million bbls. <\/p>\n<p>But the release rate is throttled down to 0.5-0.6 million b\/d. <\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not enough to kill backwardation. <\/p>\n<p>The barrels that were trapped in the Middle East have been released already, so there\u2019s no more immediate supply he can use to dump on the market. <\/p>\n<p>Clock is ticking.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But Trump may think he has runway well beyond the midterms, between running the SPR down to 70 million barrels and the diesel crunch only gradually becoming acute. HealthRanger is seeking to raise alarms, but look at his implicit timeline. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HealthRanger\/status\/2083960094006366466\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">From Twitter<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>It\u2019s getting worse. Diesel rationing is right around the corner.<\/p>\n<p>Shell CEO Wael Sawan just appeared on CNBC, and while using diplomatic language to sound calm and optimistic, what he actually admitted is that there\u2019s not enough diesel being produced to meet demand.<\/p>\n<p>A direct quote: \u201cThe price signals are that we are short on diesel and gasoline\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p>My own research says we can power through the gasoline shortage, but diesel shortages will worsen. At first, even in the USA, this will only mean higher diesel prices ($8 \u2013 $10 per gallon is where this is headed). But later this year, if oil shipments out of the SoH are not fully resuming (which seems impossible), we will almost certainly encounter a situation of \u201crationing\u201d that won\u2019t be called rationing.<\/p>\n<p>There will be scarcity, and allotments for various fuel distributors, in other words, and never enough diesel to go around.<\/p>\n<p>I probably don\u2019t have to tell you how this is going to impact food prices and deliveries, agriculture and food harvesting, construction, long-haul trucking, delivery of parts for hardware supply stores, trains \/ locomotives, etc. Basically EVERYTHING gets more expensive and delayed. Supply chains erode. Food inflation skyrockets.<\/p>\n<p>And this is the Shell CEO trying to downplay everything and sound optimistic, notably. Imagine what he\u2019s saying to his employees in private\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Prepare for things to get much, much worse. Trump still doesn\u2019t realize you can\u2019t bomb your way to victory against Iran. And he still thinks the Strait of Hormuz can be controlled by the US Navy (a laughable, ridiculous assertion).<\/p>\n<p>The coming diesel shortages are only part of the problem, of course: Fertilizer shortages, helium, sulfuric acid, polyethylene feed stock, etc. If we don\u2019t end this war and see the SoH resume shipping, our world will enter a multi-year economic Dark Age. Not just a depression, but a Dark Age of systemic collapse and despair (with starvation, violence, population collapse, mass human migration, etc., all following in short order).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cLater this year\u201d is a mighty long time away for Trump. <\/p>\n<p>And more important, Trump has made clear that his domination is all important, even if the result is epic scale destruction. He has shown no interest in moderating his tone or changing his policies to try to reverse the continuing fall in his popularity. The apparent decision to run down the SPR to the point where it destroys the salt caves is an \u201cApr\u00e8s moi, le d\u00e9luge\u201d measure. He is likely to run down US munitions to what pundits would see as US-security-threatening levels in yet another doomed-to-fail effort to reassert personal potency unless the armed forces refuse to execute his orders. <\/p>\n<p>The problem is that Trump is much more fundamentally trapped, not merely by the scale and ramifications of the strategic error of the war on Iran, the inability to force Iran to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the revelation of US military fragility, but also his personality and the way key posts are now filled by incompetents and toadies. <\/p>\n<p>Last week, in a talk with Nima, Larry Wilkerson, who has been reading US history in his surgery-related downtime, came close to saying that he saw Trump as unable to escape from his bad handiwork:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/OqVcli0KXTo?si=RpBx2jsmIO8Ls5P-\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>From a lightly-edited <a href=\"https:\/\/youtubetotranscript.com\/transcript?v=OqVcli0KXTo\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">machine transcript:<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>I think I\u2019m looking at is a situation where this particular president because of because of his own volition really is ensnared, is entrapped, is caught, use your verb, by a number of factors from which he  which he cannot  Nima, will not, cannot extricate himself. <\/p>\n<p>The first one is the one confronting him in the war he started he started\u2026He\u2019s trapped there by a number of factors, not the least of which is we\u2019re running out of ammunition\u2026<\/p>\n<p>But first of all, by the Strait of Hormuz, by the strategic importance still of that straight and the upper hand that Iran has with regard to that Strait. <\/p>\n<p>And the second thing he\u2019s trapped by other things too with regard to this conflict, but the second big thing he\u2019s trapped by is his own problem, the nuclear program, because he created it. The moment he stepped out of the JCPOA in the violative of international law and even domestic law really way he did, he created this situation\u2026So he\u2019s trapped by the Strait and he\u2019s trapped by the nuclear issue. neither of which he has the power, no matter how many bombs, if he had them, he dropped to change\u2026<\/p>\n<p>And Trump is trapped much more solidly and completely than LBJ ever was\u2026.Tge second thing I came to was this reality he is also trapped in his desire to resurrect the US presence in southwest Asia despite his losing this war and being virtually kicked out He\u2019s trying to resurrect it through whom? The greatest state sponsor of terrorism on the face of the earth, one of the richest countries on the face of the earth, Saudi Arabia. And he\u2019s trying to do it by sacrificing everything he\u2019s fighting this war for in order to give them a nuclear program.<\/p>\n<p>And he\u2019s trying to do it. And guess who\u2019s thwarting him in my view at this particular moment in that specific move?<br \/>The Houthis\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>So that\u2019s where he\u2019s trapped in his latest attempt to stay in the region and to use the Saudis as a tool by which he stays in the region. <\/p>\n<p>And then the third thing and this is very different very different from LBJ\u2019s situation which I was sort of using as a comparison.<br \/>He\u2019s trapped by Bibi and everything that means, Israel and Bibi. That\u2019s domestic trap. Thank Miriam Adleson and other people like that and far more than her with regard to money and support of Israel. And he\u2019s trapped internationally because of some prospective expansions of this conflict if he\u2019s not very very careful. <\/p>\n<p>And even if he\u2019s very very careful, I think Israel\u2019s fate is doomed. It\u2019s sealed. It\u2019s finished. It will not be a democratic state in Levant when all the fallout finishes. It might not even be extant because if this goes deeper and wider bringing in Turkey, bringing in ultimately China and Russia in a far more physical way, then we\u2019re talking about Israel being gone, disappeared from the face of the earth. <\/p>\n<p>And if it does survive, the only way it can survive is a genuine democracy that welcomes everyone into its borders and throws away the the sign that says this is a Jewish state. <\/p>\n<p>And then the last thing I was looking at\u2026Trump is unique. He\u2019s not HW. He\u2019s not George W. He\u2019s not LBJ. He\u2019s not Richard Nixon. He\u2019s not uh Ronald Reagan. . So what you\u2019re looking at here is him having very much trapped himself because of his political approach\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Win everything. Don\u2019t lose anything at all. Win all the time. <\/p>\n<p>Now that\u2019s his personal attitude also. We\u2019ve seen that in his business dealings and other things\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>How does he win in this? And this requires the kind of person who can do what LBJ did for example which was seminal in his political career. He didn\u2019t run again. He stepped down literally more in the sense of the republic and what it means to be a decent leader\u2026So Trump is haunted here by his own political style from which he cannot retreat.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>To put this in different anatomical terms, Trump will not chew off his leg to escape from his own trap.<\/p>\n<p>Again, perhaps God will smite Trump as he did Lindsey Graham. Perhaps the military will refuse to execute his orders. But either way, something will break. Either Trump will keep flip flopping even as the economy starts to come apart, or he will try his overdue big attack. <\/p>\n<p>As regulars also well know, in the  event Iran and the US send each other more substantive communiques, Iran will increase its demands over what it had gotten in the MOU. Professor Marandi has said Iran will want the US to commit to Israel not just out of Lebanon but also Gaza and to exiting its bases in the Gulf States, Admittedly that is already close to being a fact on the ground. <\/p>\n<p>From a surprisingly candid report from the Financial Times, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/a29819ef-ffb9-4d2a-9925-e3d6e6e6e797?syn-25a6b1a6=1\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Iran sets the pace in war with Trump<\/a>, on the degree to which the Iran has the US on the back foot. Key sections:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Over the past two weeks, Tehran has taken the initiative, launching pre-emptive attacks designed to exhaust the US and frighten its Arab allies into acquiescing to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>It struck against an American military installation in Jordan, breaking a lull in the fighting last week with a surprise attack. Iran and its regional proxies have widened the theatre of conflict, disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, striking Syria for the first time and being suspected of a drone attack on Egypt\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>\t\u201cIran is expecting a very long war,\u201d said Nasr, adding that the regime no longer viewed a negotiated settlement as feasible. \u201cThey are following a very methodological strategy of forcing the US as far away from Iran as possible: out of the Gulf, Syria, Iraq, and having them holed up in Israel and Jordan.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Iran has intensified strikes against Kuwait and Bahrain in recent weeks. It has forced Washington to reposition soldiers and airmen, who once relied on a necklace of vulnerable bases across the Gulf, further afield to Jordan, Israel and beyond.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There has been anger and frustration in Jordan, a stalwart American partner under heavy fire in recent weeks, where hundreds of activists and public figures signed an open letter demanding an American withdrawal.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The last paragraph is a bit desperate:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>But there are factors beyond the battlefield. \u201cThey are not invincible,\u201d said [Farzan] Sabet, of the Geneva Graduate Institute, noting that Iranian confidence can begin to erode as its already catastrophic economic outlook worsens. \u201cThere might well be a point where their calculus is forced to change.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Some fresh sightings on US withdrawals:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf6 U.S. forces are reportedly continuing their withdrawal from Iraq&#8217;s Kurdistan Region. <\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Army MIM-104 Patriot air defense battery previously deployed at Erbil International Airport, widely believed to have been hit during Iran&#8217;s missile\/drone strikes last month, has\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4MlfCkA9X6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/t.co\/4MlfCkA9X6<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uLZxUNSrsO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/uLZxUNSrsO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Egypt&#8217;s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/EGYOSINT\/status\/2083960958242758971?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">American, British, French and German forces have withdrawn hundreds of troops and key air-defense systems from Erbil International Airport in a surprise 72-hour pull-out that has left the Kurdistan Region badly exposed to intensifying Iranian and militia attacks, Rudaw\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RudawEnglish\/status\/2083606648354947245?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 1, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Reporter: There is a report that says you are moving U.S. troops out of Kuwait and Bahrain.<\/p>\n<p>Trump: I don&#8217;t want to comment on that. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mcLxCMwZe2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/mcLxCMwZe2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Clash Report (@clashreport) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/clashreport\/status\/2084033186556760447?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>We covered in detail how the US and Qatar refused to cough up even $6 billion of Iran funds that the Biden Administration had agreed to release (they then reneged with October 7 as the pretext). Even Western commentators have worked out that, as Marandi has also said, Iran will demand its frozen funds back, up front. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BrettErickson28\/status\/2083911283573702907 @BrettErickson28\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">From Brett Erickson on Twitter<\/a>: <\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>What many seem to be missing about the potential joint-control over the Strait of Hormuz because Iran and Oman is that this is not the most significant measure anymore for Iran.<\/p>\n<p>In all reality, it is extremely unlikely that Iran accepts any future deal that does not have IMMENSE asset unfreezing upfront. By many estimates, Iran has ~$100B-$120B of frozen assets held around the world.<\/p>\n<p>Given the extent of the bombing damage and blockade damage, Iran will want to ensure this can be unwound as soon as possible, but more importantly, in an IRREVERSIBLE way.<\/p>\n<p>Under the previous MOU, Iran\u2019s only notable upfront concessions was the oil sanctions waiver. As we saw\u2026 that was not what one may call \u201cdurable\u201d\u2026 as Trump ripped it up about two weeks into its 60-day authorized window. Iran will not accept such reversible concessions this time around.<\/p>\n<p>While the Strait of Hormuz is certainly the most important symbolic victory for Iran, and could possibly earn more revenues over the long-term, the immediate benefit Iran would demand from ANY peace deal is the immense unfreezing of Iran\u2019s assets.<\/p>\n<p>Upfront. Before the blockade is lifted. Irreversibly.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I hate to tell you but there is not a universe in which this happens. Trump and the US Congress both would choose to cause a global depression rather than suffer this level of humiliation. So the only way out is if the US slinks away. But Israel will do its best to block that exit. <\/p>\n<p>The Israelis are hopping mad that Trump reversed himself at the last minute:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Thousands of Israeli military and defense personnel maintained readiness this weekend following US warnings of a pending American strike on Iranian infrastructure, only for President Trump to cancel the operation at the last minute. Israeli security officials strongly criticized\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FaytuksNetwork\/status\/2083963383410242044?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Brandon Weichert reports that Israel sources have told him that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=FTSmOGb2tD8\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">the TACO is only temporary<\/a>, the US and Israel will \u201cgo back in\u201d (at 49:45). Janta Ka reported that the US has moved ten more refueling tankers into the theater. <\/p>\n<p>It appears Israel has not gotten the memo that Dimona is on the menu:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 \ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf1 NEW: Iran has reportedly added Israel&#8217;s Dimona nuclear facility to its list of potential targets, warning that it could be struck within minutes\u2014possibly before Israeli fighter jets are able to return to their bases.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jackson Hinkle \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 (@jacksonhinkle) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jacksonhinkle\/status\/2083885528739705307?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>A new post on Sonar21, by Karl Miller, discusses in depth <a href=\"https:\/\/sonar21.com\/the-iranian-counterstrike-option\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">what Iran might hit in retaliation<\/a>. Miller focuses on refineries as essential and vulnerable:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>A major US-Israeli campaign against Iran would create a credible risk of retaliatory pressure against the most concentrated Israeli fuel systems first, followed by wider pressure against GCC refining, LNG, power-water, storage and export systems if those states are perceived as enabling the campaign. The strategic danger is not a single damaged facility. It is the possibility that several tightly coupled systems fail faster than substitute supply, repair capacity and emergency logistics can be mobilized\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>Israel has no geographically diversified domestic refining system. Haifa\/Bazan and Ashdod carry effectively the entire national burden for diesel and jet\/kerosene production. The larger Haifa complex supplies approximately two-thirds of the combined middle-distillate baseline and roughly 70 percent of diesel. Ashdod is the only substantial domestic alternative if Haifa becomes unavailable.<\/p>\n<p>Haifa\/Bazan is the central Israeli fuel-security exposure because it combines the largest refining burden with interconnected support systems. A future disruption would not need to eliminate every crude or conversion unit to create a national deficit. Loss of electrical integration, steam, hydrogen, internal transfer, controls, tankage or product certification could constrain several process trains simultaneously.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>We took note of Iran\u2019s change in doctrine to allow for pre-emptive attacks. Given persistent US failure to consider how Iran operates, the officialdom must stoop to messaging:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JUST IN: \ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Iran&#8217;s considers launching preemptive strikes if diplomacy with the United States fails.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BRICSinfo\/status\/2083946772162839038?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Some odds and ends:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">You will be denied visa to the US if you criticize Israel <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Q37shFKM7D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/Q37shFKM7D<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Glenn_Diesen\/status\/2083983965891739844?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It is hard to take this seriously given that the UK is letting the US use its bases for Iran operations. Nevertheless:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u26a1\ufe0f\u2b55\ufe0f Iran: Foreign Ministry says Britain, Bulgaria, and Ukraine have informed Iran they will not participate in any war against Iran. (Al Mayadeen Breaking)<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ME_Observer_\/status\/2083970098037985693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/liveblog\/2026\/8\/3\/iran-war-live-trump-says-talks-set-to-begin-tehran-urges-us-to-honour-mou\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">From Aljazeera\u2019s live feed<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>IRGC says it intercepts Reaper drone over Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has shot down an MQ-9 Reaper drone flying over the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IRGC-operated Sepah News.<\/p>\n<p>The drone was hit by a defence system operating over the strait, the report said. It\u2019s unclear where the unmanned vehicle originated, but Reaper drones are primarily operated by the US Air Force.<\/p>\n<p>Iran has intercepted more than 30 US Reaper drones since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u2b55\ufe0f Ambrey Intelligence reports an incident in the US-backed corridor of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>Well, looks like IRGC is not keen to allow Trump even the slightest PR victory, not something you do if you&#8217;re &#8220;begging for a ceasefire..&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1uaQZL926l\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/t.co\/1uaQZL926l<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MenchOsint\/status\/2084041469250171164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u26a1\ufe0f\ud83d\udea8 Digest \u2014 10:15\u201313:15 UTC<\/p>\n<p>LEAD: Washington Post reports (via multiple feeds) that the commander of US European Command, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, has privately warned the Pentagon he lacks enough destroyers to simultaneously protect Israel from Iranian missiles and meet US\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ME_Observer_\/status\/2083542451260674495?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 1, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>More signs of desperation:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">U.S. oil refineries are delaying maintenance and running at OVER 100% output through Q2 of this year.<\/p>\n<p>If these refineries are not brought down for required maintenance very soon, they literally start to blow up and kill lots of workers.<\/p>\n<p>There are MANY examples of this over the\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 HealthRanger (@HealthRanger) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HealthRanger\/status\/2084152860585894273?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JUST IN: \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 US military asks troops for &#8220;creative and unconventional&#8221; ideas to punish Iran, CNN reports.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BRICSinfo\/status\/2084141031780405714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Done for today! See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n<p>____<\/p>\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> In case you missed it:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 Iran has updated a list of potential targets in the event that the United States and Israel launch attacks on the country&#8217;s energy facilities and critical infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p>\u25aa\ufe0f The reported target list includes:<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\udde6 Saudi Arabia: Ghawar Oil Field, Abqaiq facilities, and Khurais\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NDSYIbqNWv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/NDSYIbqNWv<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Raaz News \u2013 En (@raaznewsen) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/raaznewsen\/status\/2083462266666520796?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">August 1, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><sup>2<\/sup> I share Aurelian\u2019s sense of umbrage at calling what has been and is going on between the US and Iran as negotiations. They don\u2019t even rise to the level of being talks. Exploratory notes run though mediators, and worse, often misrepresented by them, are not negotiations. <\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;-webkit-box-shadow:none; -moz-box-shadow: none; box-shadow:none; padding:0; margin:0\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/print-button-gray.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Today\u2019s Iran war, as usual, fired a bit early. Please return at 7:30 AM EDT for a final version] As most of you know well, Trump again TACOed over the weekend, calling off a loudly-broadcast, supposedly monster attack on Iran at the very last minute, in yet another instance of Trump being influenced by the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-at-3.16.52\u202fPM.png","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[2791,3505,390,2533,3500,126,2,3501,3503,3502,2194,289,1556,3504],"class_list":["post-1844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-claims","tag-continue","tag-display","tag-escalation","tag-false","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-negotiations","tag-pressing","tag-tacos","tag-threat","tag-trump","tag-war","tag-withdrawals"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1844"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1844\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valutednews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}